Stock & Bond Investing
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Implications of Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts.
Declining interest rates powered big gain in the Real Estate & Long-Term Income strategies. Fed rate cuts are likely to raise bond fund income.
March 2024
Short Term Income Portfolio Strategy and Performance
Updates the results for the Short Term Income portfolio and analyzes the impact of projected cuts in short term interest rates.
September 2023
Recent Developments and Implications for Investing
Discusses the impact of higher real interest rates and lower inflation in the near term and provides updates for the Real Estate and Long-Term Income.
March 2023
The Federal Reserve Breaks the Bank
Explains the bank failures, the consequences, and other financial problems related to government actions. Provides the results for the Short Term Income portfolio.
December 2022
Estimating Housing Appreciation for the San Francisco Area
Presents a model of house prices with their likely near term path, and updates performance for the Defensive Equity portfolio.
September 2022
The Federal Reserve’s Faulty Predictions Slam the Market
Discusses the impact of the recent interest rate policy surprise on financial markets, and updates performance for the Real Estate and Long-Term Income portfolios.
March 2022
Update on Interest Rates and Inflation
Discusses markets’ surprise reaction to Federal Reserve policy and risk considerations for high inflation. Also a performance of the Short Term Income portfolio.
September 2021
Real Estate Portfolio Strategy and Performance
Discusses the impact of interest rate increases. Plus performance updates for the Real Estate and Long-Term Income portfolios.
March 2021
Illusions of Easy Money: The Dynamics of Financial Bubbles
Explores what we know about asset bubble formation, to provide a context for judging the risks and rewards of such a market environment.
September 2020
The Case for Defensive Equity
Shows the superiority of a strategy of focusing on low risk stocks by using past returns from a Defensive Equity portfolio. Also includes the Real Estate portfolio launch announcement and an update on Long Term Income Strategy.
December 2019
Incorporating Trends into a Dynamic Investment Strategy
Explains how investors incorporate current trends in economics, politics, and business into their investing strategy.
September 2019
A Primer for Buying Long-Term Care Insurance
Explains why, when, and how to buy long-term care insurance. Also includes an update on the Long Term Income Strategy.
March 2019
Taking the 20% Business Income Tax Deduction
Explains how to qualify for the 20% income deduction on real estate. Also includes an update on the Short Term Income Strategy.
December 2018
Long Term Income and Quantitative Investment Strategy Results
Results for the Long Term Income Strategy and also the Quantitative Equity Strategy.
June 2018
Managing Risk and Return for Long Term Investors
Explains the risk management process in the context of the links between risk, return, time horizon, and investment characteristics.
March 2018
Short Term Income Portfolio Strategy and Performance
Update on Short Term Income Strategy and discussion of major factors effecting markets and housing.
December 2017
Long Term Income and Quantitative Investment Strategy results
Results for the Long Term Income Strategy and also the Quantitative Equity Strategy.
March 2017
Benefits and Risks of Closed End Funds for Fixed Income Investing
Explains the details of how Closed-End Funds work and how to analyze their advantages. A performance update for the Short Term Income strategy illustrates the benefits.
September 2016
The Size Advantage of Individual Investors versus Institutions
Analyzes 3 major advantages of individual investors compared to institutional investors.
March 2016
Small Business Retirement Account Tax Strategies
Small Business Retirement Account Tax Strategies.
December 2015
Value versus Growth – Investor Psychology and Switching Strategies
Explains cycles of investing performance and the interaction with investor psychology. Also discusses Bond Market volatility and Quantitative Investment Strategy Test Results.
September 2015
Long Term Income Strategy and Performance
Analysis of Long Term Income portfolio performance. Plus a discussion of Market Cycles, Valuations and the Price of Risk.
June 2015
Flat Returns in Fixed Income
Analyses the factors impacting fixed income strategies over the last 12 months. Plus a performance review for the Long Term Value strategy and a note on deflation pressure from China.
March 2015
Oil Markets Analysis – Demand, Supply, and the Saudi’s Game
Applies game theory to analyze the dynamics of the oil market. Plus a performance review for the Short Term income strategy.
December 2014
The Oil Price Collapse
Discusses the oil price collapse, economic & market conditions at the end of 2014. Plus an analysis of the 1 year results for the Quantitative Equity strategy.
September 2014
After Quantitative Easing – Some Scenarios to Consider
Examines scenarios for the economy and financial markets with rising rates. Plus a performance review for the Long Term Income strategy.
June 2014
Stock Market Theories – Simple Ideals to Explaining Complex Reality
Discusses a new theory of the stock market as compared to the efficient markets ideal and its implications for investors.
March 2014
When to Move Retirement Savings to a Roth IRA
Analysis of when to covert a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. Includes performance review for the Long Term Value strategy
December 2013
A Quick Tour of Different Approaches to Stock Market Trading/Investing
Overview of various equity investing approaches and introduction to our quantitative strategy. Plus a look at our Short Term Income strategy.
September 2013
The Fed’s Interest Rate Dilemma and A Silver Lining.
Why the Fed changed course, why higher rates are good for investors, & a look at our Long Term Income Portfolio.
March 2013
Investment Strategy: Diversification Applied to Economic Scenarios
Provides a diversification strategy for various future market conditions and analyzes the “New Normal”. Also looks at risk allocation decisions.
March 2012
Behavioral Finance Explanations of Investor Errors
Explains how emotional “wiring” and mental shortcuts lead to investing errors - and their effect on market opportunities and risks.
December 2011
Investing in 2011 and 2012, risk and returns
Discusses securities returns in 2011 & year end market valuations worldwide. Analysis of risks & the investing environment in 2012.
March 2011
Quantitative Easing, Investment Returns, and Opportunities
Analyzes the impact of the Fed's quantitative easing program. Discusses our returns, risk management, and current investment opportunities.
June 2010
Double Dip Recession Dead Ahead
The market dynamics of fundamental & technical traders and the implications for investment strategy as the economy weakens.
March 2010
5-Year Performance Review
Discusses our track record since inception, along with current market conditions and our strategy.
March 2009
Real Estate Investment Looks Smart Again + Strategy Update & 4 Year Client Returns Review
Analysis of real estate market conditions. Plus an update on equity investing strategy and the past 4 years' results.
December 2008
Our Strategy for a Market Panic Environment.
Discussion of economic outlook & our equity market strategy. Also discusses Roth IRA conversions & avoiding a Madoff Ponzi scheme.
June 2008
Review of 3 Year Combined Results
Reviews returns for a representative client aggregated across strategies and discusses the strategy for the current environment.
March 2008
Long Term Value Portfolio 3rd Anniversary
Detailed review of the market beating performance of our flagship portfolio.
December 2006
2006 Performance Review
The Relationship of Risk to Investment Horizon and then Portfolio Performance in 2006.
September 2005
Up 20% vs S&P
Long Term Value Portfolio Performance, Katrina Impact, and Recommendations.
May 2005
Parked Money Portfolio
Explains this Portfolio and gives examples of its trading strategies
April 2005
Long Term Income Portfolio
Explains this Portfolio and gives examples of its trading strategies.
March 2005
Long Term Value Portfolio
Explains this Portfolio and gives examples of its trading strategies.
February 2005
Special Situations Portfolio
Explains this Portfolio and gives examples of its trading strategies.
January 2005
Introducing Separately Managed Accounts: Investing in Securities
Explains how clients benefit from Berkeley Investment Advisors' expertise in securities investing.
December 2023
Quantitative Methods for Asset Allocation (Part II)
Analyzes fundamental value timing systems and recommends combining this with momentum. Previews a new promising quantitative equity strategy.
June 2023
Quantitative Methods for Asset Allocation (Part I)
Introduces market timing strategies and analyzes the Dual Momentum system for using price trends to allocate among assets.
December 2020
Reformulating the Defensive Equity Strategy in a Speculative Market
Discusses the market environment as context for the goals and methodology used in reformulating the Defensive Equity portfolio.
September 2020
The Case for Defensive Equity
Shows the superiority of a strategy of focusing on low risk stocks by using past returns from a Defensive Equity portfolio. Also includes the Real Estate portfolio launch announcement and an update on Long Term Income Strategy.
June 2019
Asset Allocation and Why it Matters
Combining Different Asset Classes to Manage Risk and Return.
June 2018
Managing Risk and Return for Long Term Investors
Explains the risk management process in the context of the links between risk, return, time horizon, and investment characteristics.
March 2013
Investment Strategy: Diversification Applied to Economic Scenarios
Provides a diversification strategy for various future market conditions and analyzes the “New Normal”. Also looks at risk allocation decisions.
June 2012
The California Apartment Market – Past and Present
Analysis of the apartment investment market: 2002-2012. Explains stock hedging strategy & the current market environment.
December 2011
Investing in 2011 and 2012, risk and returns
Discusses securities returns in 2011 & year end market valuations worldwide. Analysis of risks & the investing environment in 2012.
March 2011
Quantitative Easing, Investment Returns, and Opportunities
Analyzes the impact of the Fed's quantitative easing program. Discusses our returns, risk management, and current investment opportunities.
September 2009
Achieving Superior Results by Understanding and Managing Risk
Identifies the various sources of risk and shows how to manage risk to avoid losses and boost returns.
December 2006
2006 Performance Review
The Relationship of Risk to Investment Horizon and then Portfolio Performance in 2006
September 2023
Recent Developments and Implications for Investing
Discusses the impact of higher real interest rates and lower inflation in the near term and provides updates for the Real Estate and Long-Term Income.
March 2023
The Federal Reserve Breaks the Bank
Explains the bank failures, the consequences, and other financial problems related to government actions. Provides the results for the Short Term Income portfolio.
September 2022
The Federal Reserve’s Faulty Predictions Slam the Market
Discusses the impact of the recent interest rate policy surprise on financial markets, and updates performance for the Real Estate and Long-Term Income portfolios.
June 2022
What Falling Market Prices Mean for Long Term Investors
Analyses the inverse link between securities prices and investors’ future returns. Also explains the strangeness of the 2022 bond market.
March 2022
Update on Interest Rates and Inflation
Discusses markets’ surprise reaction to Federal Reserve policy and risk considerations for high inflation. Also a performance of the Short Term Income portfolio.
December 2021
The Federal Reserve Plan to Raise Interest Rates
Explains the Fed’s interest rate plans relative to inflation. Then uses investment duration to illustrate sensitivity of stocks and bonds to both inflation and real interest rates.
June 2021
Rootless Renters – The Remote Work Rental Market
Analyzes a new set of real estate investment opportunities created by the pandemic. Also includes a discussion of inflation’s rising impact on investing strategies.
March 2021
Illusions of Easy Money: The Dynamics of Financial Bubbles
Explores what we know about asset bubble formation, to provide a context for judging the risks and rewards of such a market environment.
December 2020
Reformulating the Defensive Equity Strategy in a Speculative Market
Discusses the market environment as context for the goals and methodology used in reformulating the Defensive Equity portfolio.
June 2020
An Incongruous Market: 1999 Day Trader Déjà vu
Discusses the strange disconnect of the stock market from the underlying economy and the potential for a new era of inflation.
March 2020
Pandemic Economics and Financial Market Response
Explains the economic and financial market problems created by the Coronavirus and how these problems will be overcome.
December 2016
The Market Reaction to the Election and Expectations for the Economy.
Reviews market moves and the potential economic impact of the new political agenda. Plus an update on the Quantitative Investment strategy returns.
June 2016
June 2016 Extremely Low Interest Rates: Causes and Effects
Explains the economic factors driving down interest rates and inflation + the effects on the economy and financial markets.
December 2015
Value versus Growth – Investor Psychology and Switching Strategies
Explains cycles of investing performance and the interaction with investor psychology. Also discusses Bond Market volatility and Quantitative Investment Strategy Test Results.
September 2015
Long Term Income Strategy and Performance
Analysis of Long Term Income portfolio performance. Plus a discussion of Market Cycles, Valuations and the Price of Risk.
June 2015
Flat Returns in Fixed Income
Analyses the factors impacting fixed income strategies over the last 12 months. Plus a performance review for the Long Term Value strategy and a note on deflation pressure from China.
December 2014
The Oil Price Collapse
Discusses the oil price collapse, economic & market conditions at the end of 2014. Plus an analysis of the 1 year results for the Quantitative Equity strategy.
September 2013
The Fed’s Interest Rate Dilemma and A Silver Lining.
Why the Fed changed course, why higher rates are good for investors, & a look at our Long Term Income Portfolio.
June 2013
A Big Move in Rates: The Impact on Markets
Analysis of the recent rise in interest rates (unintentionally) caused by the Fed's statements.
March 2013
Investment Strategy: Diversification Applied to Economic Scenarios
Provides a diversification strategy for various future market conditions and analyzes the “New Normal”. Also looks at risk allocation decisions.
December 2012
Stock Investing – Emotions and Analysis
Looks at how people decide when to buy and sell. Also discusses fiscal policy and 2012 returns.
September 2012
Government Policies and their Impact on Investing
Explains the effects of monetary and fiscal policies, including the risks to benefit payments.
June 2012
The California Apartment Market – Past and Present
Analysis of the apartment investment market: 2002-2012. Explains stock hedging strategy & the current market environment.
December 2011
Investing in 2011 and 2012, risk and returns
Discusses securities returns in 2011 & year end market valuations worldwide. Analysis of risks & the investing environment in 2012.
September 2011
Managing the Risks of Retirement Finances:Focus on Inflation Part II
The performance of stocks, various types of bonds, and the different categories of real estate relative to inflation.
March 2011
Quantitative Easing, Investment Returns, and Opportunities
Analyzes the impact of the Fed's quantitative easing program. Discusses our returns, risk management, and current investment opportunities.
September 2010
Roth IRA’s and 401K’s
Analysis of converting retirement accounts to Roth accounts. Also discusses Ray’s CBS interview, Gold prices, stock picking and correlation.
June 2010
Double Dip Recession Dead Ahead
The market dynamics of fundamental & technical traders and the implications for investment strategy as the economy weakens.
March 2010
5-Year Performance Review
Discusses our track record since inception, along with current market conditions and our strategy
March 2009
Real Estate Investment Looks Smart Again + Strategy Update & 4 Year Client Returns Review
Analysis of real estate market conditions. Plus an update on equity investing strategy and the past 4 years' results.
December 2008
Our Strategy for a Market Panic Environment.
Discussion of economic outlook & our equity market strategy. Also discusses Roth IRA conversions & avoiding a Madoff Ponzi scheme.
September 2008
Economics, Government, and Financial Markets: Anatomy of a Mess
An analysis of investment implications of the financial crises and potential government policies.
September 2007
Mortgage Market Meltdown
Explains the Credit Market crisis and its implications for Real Estate, Stocks and Bonds
January 2007
2007 Trends Analysis and Forecast
My Analysis and Outlook for Real Estate, Stocks and Bonds for 2007
September 2006
Updates
U.S. Real Estate Market Analysis plus notes on the Stock Market and Thailand
Artificial Intelligence: Capabilities, Limitations, Expectations & Implications
What AI can and cannot do; plus some implications for investors. Also discusses long term asset class forecasts.
December 2019
Incorporating Trends into a Dynamic Investment Strategy
Explains how investors incorporate current trends in economics, politics, and business into their investing strategy.
June 2019
Asset Allocation and Why it Matters
Combining Different Asset Classes to Manage Risk and Return.
September 2014
After Quantitative Easing – Some Scenarios to Consider
Examines scenarios for the economy and financial markets with rising rates. Plus a performance review for the Long Term Income strategy.
June 2014
Stock Market Theories – Simple Ideals to Explaining Complex Reality
Discusses a new theory of the stock market as compared to the efficient markets ideal and its implications for investors.
December 2013
A Quick Tour of Different Approaches to Stock Market Trading/Investing
Overview of various equity investing approaches and introduction to our quantitative strategy. Plus a look at our Short Term Income strategy.
December 2012
Stock Investing – Emotions and Analysis
Looks at how people decide when to buy and sell. Also discusses fiscal policy and 2012 returns.
March 2012
Behavioral Finance Explanations of Investor Errors
Explains how emotional “wiring” and mental shortcuts lead to investing errors - and their effect on market opportunities and risks.
December 2008
Our Strategy for a Market Panic Environment.
Discussion of economic outlook & our equity market strategy. Also discusses Roth IRA conversions & avoiding a Madoff Ponzi scheme.
November 2006
Anatomy of an Opportunity
Discussion of the Market Overeaction to Canada's announcement about taxing trusts
July 2006
Hot Penny Stocks - Bad Advice from the Junk Mail Bag
Irreverent review of common pump and dump stock scams routinely hitting our inboxes.
January 2006
Psychology of Investing
Actual vs perceived risks and an analysis of how people deal with the costs of understanding risk