September 2024
Implications of Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts.
Declining interest rates powered big gain in the Real Estate & Long-Term Income strategies. Fed rate cuts are likely to raise bond fund income.

June 2024
Artificial Intelligence: Capabilities, Limitations, Expectations & Implications
What AI can and cannot do; plus some implications for investors. Also discusses long term asset class forecasts.

March 2024
Short Term Income Portfolio Strategy and Performance
Updates the results for the Short Term Income portfolio and analyzes the impact of projected cuts in short term interest rates.

December 2023
Quantitative Methods for Asset Allocation (Part II)
Analyzes fundamental value timing systems and recommends combining this with momentum. Previews a new promising quantitative equity strategy.

September 2023
Recent Developments and Implications for Investing
Discusses the impact of higher real interest rates and lower inflation in the near term and provides updates for the Real Estate and Long-Term Income.

June 2023
Quantitative Methods for Asset Allocation (Part I)
Introduces market timing strategies and analyzes the Dual Momentum system for using price trends to allocate among assets.

March 2023
The Federal Reserve Breaks the Bank
Explains the bank failures, the consequences, and other financial problems related to government actions. Provides the results for the Short Term Income portfolio.

December 2022
Estimating Housing Appreciation for the San Francisco Area
Presents a model of house prices with their likely near term path, and updates performance for the Defensive Equity portfolio.

September 2022
The Federal Reserve’s Faulty Predictions Slam the Market
Discusses the impact of the recent interest rate policy surprise on financial markets, and updates performance for the Real Estate and Long-Term Income portfolios.

June 2022
What Falling Market Prices Mean for Long Term Investors
Analyses the inverse link between securities prices and investors’ future returns. Also explains the strangeness of the 2022 bond market.

March 2022
Update on Interest Rates and Inflation
Discusses markets’ surprise reaction to Federal Reserve policy and risk considerations for high inflation. Also a performance of the Short Term Income portfolio.

December 2021
The Federal Reserve Plan to Raise Interest Rates
Explains the Fed’s interest rate plans relative to inflation. Then uses investment duration to illustrate sensitivity of stocks and bonds to both inflation and real interest rates.

September 2021
Real Estate Portfolio Strategy and Performance
Discusses the impact of interest rate increases. Plus performance updates for the Real Estate and Long-Term Income portfolios.

June 2021
Rootless Renters – The Remote Work Rental Market
Analyzes a new set of real estate investment opportunities created by the pandemic. Also includes a discussion of inflation’s rising impact on investing strategies.

March 2021
Illusions of Easy Money: The Dynamics of Financial Bubbles
Explores what we know about asset bubble formation, to provide a context for judging the risks and rewards of such a market environment.

December 2020
Reformulating the Defensive Equity Strategy in a Speculative Market
Discusses the market environment as context for the goals and methodology used in reformulating the Defensive Equity portfolio.

September 2020
The Case for Defensive Equity
Shows the superiority of a strategy of focusing on low risk stocks by using past returns from a Defensive Equity portfolio. Also includes the Real Estate portfolio launch announcement and an update on Long Term Income Strategy.

June 2020
An Incongruous Market: 1999 Day Trader Déjà vu
Discusses the strange disconnect of the stock market from the underlying economy and the potential for a new era of inflation.

March 2020
Pandemic Economics and Financial Market Response
Explains the economic and financial market problems created by the Coronavirus and how these problems will be overcome.

December 2019
Incorporating Trends into a Dynamic Investment Strategy
Explains how investors incorporate current trends in economics, politics, and business into their investing strategy.

September 2019
A Primer for Buying Long-Term Care Insurance
Explains why, when, and how to buy long-term care insurance. Also includes an update on the Long Term Income Strategy.

June 2019
Asset Allocation and Why it Matters
Combining Different Asset Classes to Manage Risk and Return.

March 2019
Taking the 20% Business Income Tax Deduction
Explains how to qualify for the 20% income deduction on real estate. Also includes an update on the Short Term Income Strategy.

December 2018
Long Term Income and Quantitative Investment Strategy Results
Results for the Long Term Income Strategy and also the Quantitative Equity Strategy.

September 2018
Linking Savings to Retirement Spending Part 3
Analyses the impact of social security and variability in inflation and investment returns on how long assets last in retirement.

June 2018
Managing Risk and Return for Long Term Investors
Explains the risk management process in the context of the links between risk, return, time horizon, and investment characteristics.

March 2018
Short Term Income Portfolio Strategy and Performance
Update on Short Term Income Strategy and discussion of major factors effecting markets and housing.

December 2017
Long Term Income and Quantitative Investment Strategy results
Results for the Long Term Income Strategy and also the Quantitative Equity Strategy.

September 2017
Linking Savings to Retirement Spending Part 2
Expands on the analysis of how long savings can last to include owning a home versus renting along with the possibility of downsizing.

June 2017
Linking Savings to Retirement Spending Part 1
Analyses how spending and asset allocation interact to determine how long your money can last.

March 2017
Benefits and Risks of Closed End Funds for Fixed Income Investing
Explains the details of how Closed-End Funds work and how to analyze their advantages. A performance update for the Short Term Income strategy illustrates the benefits.

December 2016
The Market Reaction to the Election and Expectations for the Economy.
Reviews market moves and the potential economic impact of the new political agenda. Plus an update on the Quantitative Investment strategy returns.

September 2016
The Size Advantage of Individual Investors versus Institutions
Analyzes 3 major advantages of individual investors compared to institutional investors.

June 2016
June 2016 Extremely Low Interest Rates: Causes and Effects
Explains the economic factors driving down interest rates and inflation + the effects on the economy and financial markets.

March 2016
Small Business Retirement Account Tax Strategies
Small Business Retirement Account Tax Strategies

December 2015
Value versus Growth – Investor Psychology and Switching Strategies
Explains cycles of investing performance and the interaction with investor psychology. Also discusses Bond Market volatility and Quantitative Investment Strategy Test Results.

September 2015
Long Term Income Strategy and Performance
Analysis of Long Term Income portfolio performance. Plus a discussion of Market Cycles, Valuations and the Price of Risk.

June 2015
Flat Returns in Fixed Income

Analyses the factors impacting fixed income strategies over the last 12 months. Plus a performance review for the Long Term Value strategy and a note on deflation pressure from China.

March 2015
Oil Markets Analysis – Demand, Supply, and the Saudi’s Game
Applies game theory to analyze the dynamics of the oil market. Plus a performance review for the Short Term income strategy.

December 2014
The Oil Price Collapse
Discusses the oil price collapse, economic & market conditions at the end of 2014. Plus an analysis of the 1 year results for the Quantitative Equity strategy.

September 2014
After Quantitative Easing – Some Scenarios to Consider
Examines scenarios for the economy and financial markets with rising rates. Plus a performance review for the Long Term Income strategy.

June 2014
Stock Market Theories – Simple Ideals to Explaining Complex Reality
Discusses a new theory of the stock market as compared to the efficient markets ideal and its implications for investors.

March 2014
When to Move Retirement Savings to a Roth IRA
Analysis of when to covert a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. Includes performance review for the Long Term Value strategy

December 2013
A Quick Tour of Different Approaches to Stock Market Trading/Investing
Overview of various equity investing approaches and introduction to our quantitative strategy. Plus a look at our Short Term Income strategy.

September 2013
The Fed’s Interest Rate Dilemma and A Silver Lining.
Why the Fed changed course, why higher rates are good for investors, & a look at our Long Term Income Portfolio.

June 2013
A Big Move in Rates: The Impact on Markets
Analysis of the recent rise in interest rates (unintentionally) caused by the Fed's statements.

March 2013
Investment Strategy: Diversification Applied to Economic Scenarios
Provides a diversification strategy for various future market conditions and analyzes the “New Normal”. Also looks at risk allocation decisions.

December 2012
Stock Investing – Emotions and Analysis
Looks at how people decide when to buy and sell. Also discusses fiscal policy and 2012 returns.

September 2012
Government Policies and their Impact on Investing
Explains the effects of monetary and fiscal policies, including the risks to benefit payments.

June 2012
The California Apartment Market – Past and Present
Analysis of the apartment investment market: 2002-2012. Explains stock hedging strategy & the current market environment.

March 2012
Behavioral Finance Explanations of Investor Errors
Explains how emotional “wiring” and mental shortcuts lead to investing errors - and their effect on market opportunities and risks.

December 2011
Investing in 2011 and 2012, risk and returns
Discusses securities returns in 2011 & year end market valuations worldwide. Analysis of risks & the investing environment in 2012.

September 2011
Managing the Risks of Retirement Finances:Focus on Inflation Part II
The performance of stocks, various types of bonds, and the different categories of real estate relative to inflation.

June 2011
Managing the Risks of Retirement Finances: Focus on Inflation Part I
The impact of inflation on retirement spending and the performance of money market investments relative to inflation.

March 2011
Quantitative Easing, Investment Returns, and Opportunities
Analyzes the impact of the Fed's quantitative easing program. Discusses our returns, risk management, and current investment opportunities.

December 2010
Investing in Foreclosures
Explains the economics of foreclosure investing and investing with private foreclosure funds.

September 2010
Roth IRA’s and 401K’s
Analysis of converting retirement accounts to Roth accounts. Also discusses Ray’s CBS interview, Gold prices, stock picking and correlation.

June 2010
Double Dip Recession Dead Ahead
The market dynamics of fundamental & technical traders and the implications for investment strategy as the economy weakens.

March 2010
5-Year Performance Review
Discusses our track record since inception, along with current market conditions and our strategy

December 2009
Investing in Triple Net Leased Commercial Real Estate - Why and How
Explains why NNN property is an attractive substitute for bonds in your portfolio and how to evaluate these properties.

September 2009
Achieving Superior Results by Understanding and Managing Risk
Identifies the various sources of risk and shows how to manage risk to avoid losses and boost returns.

June 2009
Unexpected inflation's effects on real estate returns.
Shows how returns on apartments and commercial real estate react to an unexpected high inflation scenario. Also discusses potential market manipulations by govt.

March 2009
Real Estate Investment Looks Smart Again + Strategy Update & 4 Year Client Returns Review
Analysis of real estate market conditions. Plus an update on equity investing strategy and the past 4 years' results.

December 2008
Our Strategy for a Market Panic Environment.
Discussion of economic outlook & our equity market strategy. Also discusses Roth IRA conversions & avoiding a Madoff Ponzi scheme.

September 2008
Economics, Government, and Financial Markets: Anatomy of a Mess
An analysis of investment implications of the financial crises and potential government policies.

June 2008
Review of 3 Year Combined Results
Reviews returns for a representative client aggregated across strategies and discusses the strategy for the current environment

March 2008
Long Term Value Portfolio 3rd Anniversary
Detailed review of the market beating performance of our flagship portfolio

December 2007
Managing Home Equity to Build Wealth Part 2
Explains the Rex Agreement and how to use it to increase returns on capital tied up in your house

September 2007
Mortgage Market Meltdown
Explains the Credit Market crisis and its implications for Real Estate, Stocks and Bonds

June 2007
Managing Home Equity to Build Wealth Part 1
Analyses the benefits of using Mortgage Debt to pull out Home Equity for Reinvestment

March 2007
Who Wants to be an Angel?
Explains Angel Investing Analysis using Parco Homes as an example.

January 2007
2007 Trends Analysis and Forecast
My Analysis and Outlook for Real Estate, Stocks and Bonds for 2007

December 2006
2006 Performance Review
The Relationship of Risk to Investment Horizon and then Portfolio Performance in 2006

November 2006
Anatomy of an Opportunity
Discussion of the Market Overeaction to Canada's announcement about taxing trusts

October 2006
New Mexico Real Estate Update
Updates our 2005 report on the market in Rio Rancho N.M.

September 2006
Updates
U.S. Real Estate Market Analysis plus notes on the Stock Market and Thailand

August 2006
Thai Development Fund Offering
Provides a summary of a fund set up to invest in land in Thailand

July 2006
Hot Penny Stocks - Bad Advice from the Junk Mail Bag
Irreverent review of common pump and dump stock scams routinely hitting our inboxes.

June 2006
Postponing Tax by Attempting an Exchange
Explains a useful quirk in the tax code and a new financial tool for hedging house price risk

May 2006
Thailand: Focus on Koh Samui
Demand versus Supply and the expected appreciation on Koh Samui

April 2006
Thailand: Focus on Pattaya
Demand versus Supply and the expected appreciation in Pattaya

March 2006
Using Innovation to Boost Development Profits
How to earn high returns building houses in Hawaii using new methods from Prefab LAB

February 2006
Accessing Home Equity for Retirement
Analysis of choices (including selling) in using home equity to fund retirement spending

January 2006
Psychology of Investing
Actual vs perceived risks and an analysis of how people deal with the costs of understanding risk

December 2005
Real Estate in Thailand III - Risk Analysis
Analysis of the risks investing in real estate in Thailand

November 2005
Real Estate in Thailand II - Investment Thesis
Details of why Thailand is a great place to invest right now.

October 2005
Real Estate in Thailand Part 1 - Introduction
Background and Geography of Thailand Real Estate Market

September 2005
Up 20% vs S&P
Long Term Value Portfolio Performance, Katrina Impact, and Recommendations

August 2005
Hawaiian Vacation Homes
Background Information and Recommendations for Investing in Hawaiian Vacation Property

July 2005
Investing in Fundamental Trends
Discusses the impact of China and the coming wave of retirees on Real Estate investing.

June 2005
Investing in New Construction in New Mexico
Provides information about investing in new developments in Rio Rancho and Albuquerque.

May 2005
Parked Money Portfolio
Explains this Portfolio and gives examples of its trading strategies

April 2005
Long Term Income Portfolio
Explains this Portfolio and gives examples of its trading strategies

March 2005
Long Term Value Portfolio
Explains this Portfolio and gives examples of its trading strategies

February 2005
Special Situations Portfolio
Explains this Portfolio and gives examples of its trading strategies

January 2005
Introducing Separately Managed Accounts: Investing in Securities
Explains how clients benefit from Berkeley Investment Advisors' expertise in securities investing.

December 2004
Update on Phoenix - a look at 2004 & 2005
Phoenix apartment and single family home markets.

November 2004
Primer on Legal Structures for Asset Protection
Explains how to use legal entities to protect assets against lawsuits and reduce taxes.

October 2004
Residential Real Estate Market News
Current market conditions and key market analysis.

September 2004
Thoughts on Economic Trends
Analyzes events and trends for real estate investing implications.

August 2004
Launch of Expanded Services
Explains our services, including exchanges, asset management and retirement/financial planning

July 2004
The Case for Selling Real Estate in California
Explains the relationships between appreciation, capitalization rates, interest rates and returns. Compares potential returns in CA to alternatives.

June 2004
Investment Management for Retirement
Designing Investment Strategies to Achieve Financial Goals Before and After Retirement

May 2004
Pooled Investment: A Primer
Explains Real Estate Partnership Investing versus Direct Investment

April 2004
Focus on Las Vegas
Las Vegas Apartment and Single Family Home Markets

March 2004
Investing in Single Family Homes
Why, where, and how to invest in single family homes.

February 2004
Primer on Real Estate Risk
Definitions of risk, types & sources of risk, and how to manage and/or mitigate risk.

January 2004
Primer for Calculating Real Estate Returns
Definitions of return measures and how to forecast returns

December 2003
Focus on Phoenix
Phoenix Apartment Market

November 2003
Maximizing Returns on Equity - Why and How
Financial management concepts for maximizing wealth

October 2003
Residential Real Estate Market News
Current market conditions and key market analysis.

September 2003
Anatomy of a Deal Part III: Financing
Dealing with banks and brokers: How to get the best loan for you.

August 2003
Anatomy of a Deal Part II: Contract Contingencies
Explanation of the use of Contingency Clauses in Contracts.

July 2003
Anatomy of a Deal Part I: Getting into Contract
Explanation of Purchase Contract negotiations and key terms.

June 2003
Housing vs. Investment Property – The Role of Interest Rates and Expectations
Analysis of the how the cost of capital and expectations are affecting price moves and the potential for a burst bubble.

May 2003
Opportunity Costs and the Average Investor
A Look at Some Potential Pitfalls in Real Estate Investing

April 2003
Residential Real Estate Market News
A Summary of the Market in 2002 and Suggestions for Investing in 2003

March 2003
Triple Net Lease Properties: Pro’s and Con’s
A Primer on Investing in Single Tenant Triple Net Leased Property

February 2003
The Mobile Home Park Niche: Pro’s & Con’s
Comparison of Mobile Home Parks to Apartments as Investments

January 2003
When to use Leverage to Boost Returns
Mathematical Analysis of when Leverage works for or against you

December 2002
A Quick Test of a Bubble Investment
Rule of Thumb to avoid overpaying

November 2002
A Tale of 3 Properties
Valuation and Returns Analysis

October 2002
CA Residential R.E. Market News
What's going on in the market.

September 2002
More Bubble Trouble
Housing bubble impact on Investors